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Deconstructing The Donald: November
Donald Trump didn’t move much in the polls this month, and that might be the most telling fact of all. He’s not gaining, but neither is he dropping. Seemingly locked on a 25-30 percent share of...
View ArticleWhy Ted Cruz Probably Won't Win
Ted Cruz is now the flavor of the week. He has risen dramatically in polls, both nationally and in key states like Iowa, and now many pundits are saying he’s the man to watch. Maybe so, but that vastly...
View ArticleThe Force Awakens
This article is not about the upcoming Star Wars movie. But it is the article you are looking for!The GOP primary electorate has a Force that “surrounds us” and “binds the [GOP] together”. That Force...
View ArticleJurassic Park Explains Why Kasich Attacking Trump Could Decide The Race
In Jurassic Park, Dr. Ian Malcolm explains why chaos theory makes it likely that the seemingly planned and controlled island theme park is likely to erupt into mayhem and violence. Anyone who wants to...
View ArticleWill Ted Cruz Make Me Eat Crow?
One month ago, I wrote that Ted Cruz was unlikely to win the GOP nomination. The reason: his support and entire political persona was based in the most conservative portions of the party, portions that...
View ArticleIowa Isn't Over: It Has Barely Begun
The media have decided that Iowa is a two-man race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. That may end up being true, but past history suggests someone will surge in the last two weeks to take first or...
View ArticleFinding Iowa's Cyclone
Cyclones, as any Midwesterner knows, are devils. They pop up out of nowhere, wreak havoc and destruction, and leave just as suddenly as they came. They are more than the nickname for Iowa State...
View ArticleCan Rubio Fix His Hyperdrive?
Marco Rubio faces the most important ten days of his campaign. After steadily rising in the polls since mid-summer, Rubio has now dropped in national polls since early December. He has also fallen by a...
View ArticleDecision Desk, Iowa: Three-Man Race?
Tonight’s Iowa caucuses will finally start to winnow the ginormous Republican field down to size. More importantly, it will also be the first test of three different narratives. Will Trump’s voters...
View ArticleRubio Second in Latest Entrance Poll Data
No one should freak out about the entrance poll data. They were based on 667 respondents. Now there are 1013 respondents, and the Trump lead has dropped. Now Trump 27, Rubio 22, Cruz 21.Yes, Rubio in...
View ArticleTrump, Cruz Tied At 25; Rubio at 22 in Latest Entrance Poll
The latest data dump from the exit poll has moved Ted Cruz into a statistical tie with Donald Trump. Rubio is at 22. Essentially, this is a three-man race and anything that happens from here is within...
View ArticleCruz Leads Very Conservatives, Rubio Somewhat Cons, Trump Moderates
The entrance poll data show that past is prologue in today’s caucuses. Cruz is leading among the 39 percent who are very conservative by a 40 to 21 percent margin over Trump (Rubio has 15 percent)....
View ArticleCruz Hitting Mark in Eastern, North-Central Iowa
County-level data are significant enough in a few places to note that Ted Cruz is doing well enough to win in Eastern Iowa, where he is running ahead of Marco Rubio, and in the medium-sized counties...
View ArticleCruz Leads By 1 in Latest Entrance Poll
We’re now up to 1771 respondents, and Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump and Marco Rubio by 26-25-22. Still a tight three man race and anything can happen. Cruz Leads By 1 In Latest Entrance Poll
View ArticleCruz Winning Iowa Bellwethers
The six counties to watch in Iowa are Madison, Marshall, Jasper, Mahaska, Marion, and Warren. Marion hasn’t reported anything yet, but Cruz is winning the other five. I would expect his share of the...
View ArticleI'm THIS CLOSE To Calling It For Cruz
Still a third of the vote out, but there are no obviously anti-Cruz bastions to report. He’s doing well everywhere: even when he finishes third, it’s not by so large a margin that he gets killed. So...
View ArticleCruz Wins, Rubio Might Finish Second
So it’s clear now that Ted Cruz will win Iowa by a clear, but not overwhelming, margin. But Rubio is closing fast on Trump. Given the expectations that a record turnout would help Trump, it’s hard to...
View ArticleIowa Delegate Count: Cruz 7, Trump 6, Rubio 6
Good thing this race is all about momentum, because if it were about delegates tonight would be a big bunch of nothing. Iowa awards its 27 pledged delegates (three delegates will attend unpledged)...
View ArticleTrump Holds On To Second
Looks like Trump will hold on to second. There might still be another 10-15,000 votes left to come in, but it would be almost impossible for Rubio to overturn a 2,300 vote gap from that. So Cruz,...
View ArticleDecision Desk, South Carolina: The Field Winnows
The polls are clear: Donald Trump will win tomorrow’s South Carolina GOP primary. Moreover, he is likely to do so by a substantial margin, one that will give him all 50 of the Palmetto State’s...
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