Can Rubio Fix His Hyperdrive?
Marco Rubio faces the most important ten days of his campaign. After steadily rising in the polls since mid-summer, Rubio has now dropped in national polls since early December. He has also fallen by a...
View ArticleDecision Desk, Iowa: Three-Man Race?
Tonight’s Iowa caucuses will finally start to winnow the ginormous Republican field down to size. More importantly, it will also be the first test of three different narratives. Will Trump’s voters...
View ArticleRubio Second in Latest Entrance Poll Data
No one should freak out about the entrance poll data. They were based on 667 respondents. Now there are 1013 respondents, and the Trump lead has dropped. Now Trump 27, Rubio 22, Cruz 21.Yes, Rubio in...
View ArticleTrump, Cruz Tied At 25; Rubio at 22 in Latest Entrance Poll
The latest data dump from the exit poll has moved Ted Cruz into a statistical tie with Donald Trump. Rubio is at 22. Essentially, this is a three-man race and anything that happens from here is within...
View ArticleCruz Leads Very Conservatives, Rubio Somewhat Cons, Trump Moderates
The entrance poll data show that past is prologue in today’s caucuses. Cruz is leading among the 39 percent who are very conservative by a 40 to 21 percent margin over Trump (Rubio has 15 percent)....
View ArticleCruz Hitting Mark in Eastern, North-Central Iowa
County-level data are significant enough in a few places to note that Ted Cruz is doing well enough to win in Eastern Iowa, where he is running ahead of Marco Rubio, and in the medium-sized counties...
View ArticleCruz Leads By 1 in Latest Entrance Poll
We’re now up to 1771 respondents, and Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump and Marco Rubio by 26-25-22. Still a tight three man race and anything can happen. Cruz Leads By 1 In Latest Entrance Poll
View ArticleCruz Winning Iowa Bellwethers
The six counties to watch in Iowa are Madison, Marshall, Jasper, Mahaska, Marion, and Warren. Marion hasn’t reported anything yet, but Cruz is winning the other five. I would expect his share of the...
View ArticleI'm THIS CLOSE To Calling It For Cruz
Still a third of the vote out, but there are no obviously anti-Cruz bastions to report. He’s doing well everywhere: even when he finishes third, it’s not by so large a margin that he gets killed. So...
View ArticleCruz Wins, Rubio Might Finish Second
So it’s clear now that Ted Cruz will win Iowa by a clear, but not overwhelming, margin. But Rubio is closing fast on Trump. Given the expectations that a record turnout would help Trump, it’s hard to...
View ArticleIowa Delegate Count: Cruz 7, Trump 6, Rubio 6
Good thing this race is all about momentum, because if it were about delegates tonight would be a big bunch of nothing. Iowa awards its 27 pledged delegates (three delegates will attend unpledged)...
View ArticleTrump Holds On To Second
Looks like Trump will hold on to second. There might still be another 10-15,000 votes left to come in, but it would be almost impossible for Rubio to overturn a 2,300 vote gap from that. So Cruz,...
View ArticleDecision Desk, South Carolina: The Field Winnows
The polls are clear: Donald Trump will win tomorrow’s South Carolina GOP primary. Moreover, he is likely to do so by a substantial margin, one that will give him all 50 of the Palmetto State’s...
View ArticleI Don't Believe The Latest SC Polls - Here's Why
Two polls, one from Clemson University and the other from Opinion Savvy, have been released since I wrote my blog post on SC. Both have Trump in the high 20s, suggesting tomorrow night will be closer...
View ArticleEarly Exits - Trump 30, Cruz 25.5, Rubio 23
The early exit poll, over 2000 respondents, has Trump up by 4.5 percent over Cruz and by 7 over Rubio. Bush, Kasich, and Carson are all in the single digits.If the results bear this out, then expect...
View ArticleCruz Wins Very Conservatives, Loses Others
Ted Cruz’s South Carolina performance will conform to my model, if the exits are right. They show him winning the very conservatives 39-27 over Trump. But he loses somewhat conservatives by a 34-20...
View ArticleJim Morrison and The Doors to Jeb: This Is The End
John Kasich told us he likes indie rock this week, but the best musical metaphor for Jeb’s campaign comes from the classic ’60s rock band, The Doors. The lyrics are disturbing and harsh, but with Bush...
View ArticleCruz Losing Religious Evangelical Heartland
“Very conservative evangelicals” are the dominant force in many South Carolina counties, but you wouldn’t know it from tonight’s results. Take Chesterfield county, one of six sizeable counties to have...
View ArticleRubio Will Barely Lose CD 1 and 4; Trump Likely Wins All Delegates
Trump’s victory is pretty sweeping. He will clearly carry five of the state’s seven congressional districts, garnering him fifteen delegates. His statewide win gets him another 29, so he is guaranteed...
View ArticleDecision Desk, Nevada: Another Trump Blowout?
There is little polling in advance of tonight’s Nevada caucuses, but that which exists predict another Trump blowout. There’s no reason not to believe this, as Nevada’s GOP electorate has shown a...
View ArticleDecision Desk, Super Tuesday: Trumpocalypse Now
Cue the Wagner music and get ready for the smell of napalm in the morning. Unless this weekend’s KKK/David Duke controversy dramatically shakes up the race, Donald Trump’s political Blitzkrieg is...
View ArticleDecision Desk, Super Saturday: Trump 3, Rubio 1, Cruz 1?
Four states and one territory (Puerto Rico) vote this weekend. While there’s no indication the Trump Train is getting derailed anytime soon, the undercard battle between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio for...
View ArticleDecision Desk, March 8: Trump 2, Cruz 2
Ted Cruz is about ready to run out of states where his base, very conservative evangelicals, are a large share of the GOP electorate. Fortunately for him, three of the four states voting on March 8...
View ArticleDecision Desk, Ides of March: Et Tu, GOP?
“Beware the Ides of March,” the soothsayer told Caesar. Election soothsayers, aka pundits, have been saying the same to the GOP for months. March 15 will not only determine the fates of many Republican...
View ArticleDecision Desk, Rocky Mountain High: Trump's Canyon
The states selecting delegates today, Arizona and Utah, are known for their spacious and awesome canyons. So it is fitting they vote as a tandem, as today will see the canyon separating Donald Trump...
View ArticleDecison Desk, Wisconsin: Cruz Badgers Trump
GOP elites are likely to breathe a sigh of relief tonight as Ted Cruz wins Wisconsin’s primary. But they shouldn’t make that breath a deep one: I think the result will be closer than most polls...
View ArticleCruzin' to Cleveland
Every reader of this blog knows I have been critical of Ted Cruz’s election strategy. For good reason: for months he has seemed to focus solely on the party’s most conservative factions and ignored the...
View ArticleDecision Desk, New York: The Empire (State) Strikes Back
Repeat after me: there is no such thing as momentum. Two weeks after Ted Cruz’s unexpectedly large victory in Wisconsin, New York Republicans look poised to deliver exactly the same blowout in favor of...
View ArticleDecision Desk, Acela Corridor Primaries: Trump Train Speeds To Cleveland
Tonight will be an awful night for the #NeverTrump forces. The irresistible force that is Donald Trump will meet a very moveable object, East Coast Republicans. They will gladly hitch a ride on the...
View ArticleDecision Desk, Indiana: Hoosier Nominee? Trump
It is time to deal with the inevitable. Donald Trump will win Indiana so decisively tonight that the Republican race will be effectively over.With one glaring exception, all the polls show Trump...
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